DTN Closing Cotton            08/17 13:37

   Cotton Plows Higher Monday

   The cotton market methodically moved higher Monday, posting new highs for 
the month. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market methodically moved higher Monday, posting new highs for 
the month. Traders are adhering to the bullish technical trend, the strong 
showing of the CFTC update, and the worsening growing conditions in West Texas.

   Monday afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will grade the condition of the crop. 
Last week, the U.S. crop was rated 40% good to excellent, versus 42% last week 
and 46% four weeks prior. We may see some improvement in Southeast in this 
afternoon's Crop Progress report, but also some deterioration in Texas and the 
Delta.   

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 22-Aug. 26) shows much-above normal 
temperatures for the entirety of the U.S. Cotton Belt. Rain-wise, forecasts 
show below-normal chances for the U.S. planted area as well.

   The updated Commitments of Traders report held that the managed-money funds 
added some 10,500 long positions, lifting their net-long carry to 72,870 
contracts. Their most recent net-long position was 82,500 from March 2025. 

   The U.S. dollar traded to its lowest level in more than two months. 
Currency traders have lessened their U.S. rate hike bets. Friday's weaker 
retail sales, and the current inflation numbers may cause the central bank to 
give pause.

   For Monday, December closed at 85.48 cents, up 68 points; March 2027 
finished at 87.28 cents, plus 60 points; and July 2027 settled at 87.73 cents, 
38 points lower. Monday's estimated volume was 43,938 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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