DTN Closing Cotton            05/14 13:34

   Cotton Market Gets Hammered

   The cotton market was egregiously lower today amid poor exports, improving 
weather, Chinese indifference and its overbought technical condition.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was egregiously lower today amid poor exports, improving 
weather, Chinese indifference and its overbought technical condition. Traders 
quickly took profits at the first hint that cotton's upside momentum was 
blunted. The market now will need to regroup before attempting to resume its 
upside path.

   Highlights from today's weekly export sales included sales 47,699 bales for 
the current marketing year and 29,716 for 2026/27. The total was down from last 
week's combination of 171,749. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 96% of 
USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 105% for this point in the 
marketing year.

   Thus far, the Trump/Xi trade meeting has not been overly encouraging on any 
new U.S. agricultural purchases. Traders now say that they do not anticipate 
Beijing to increase soybean purchases beyond the commitment made last October, 
amid weak domestic demand and competitively priced Brazilian supplies. Thus 
far, corn and cotton have not been directly mentioned.

   Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders 
data. Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 12,000 positions, lifting 
their net-long carry to 51,184 contracts. The all-time record bullish record 
stands at 108,788 contracts.

   The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 19-23) shows normal for Texas, but 
above-normal readings for the U.S. Delta and the Southeast. Rainwise, Texas 
shows much-above normal chances, while the Delta and the Southeast indicate 
slightly above-normal opportunities.

   For Thursday, July closed at 83.94 cents, off 282 points; December closed at 
84.48 cents, minus 198 points; and March 2027 finished at 85.50, down 197 
points. Thursday's estimated volume was 101,567 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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