DTN Closing Cotton            12/31 13:50

   Cotton Says Adieu to 2025  

   The cotton market finally exited the tumultuous and bearish year of 2025. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market finally exited the tumultuous and bearish year of 2025. It 
was a year defined by large production, poor demand, and tariffs. The market 
posted its low of 60.80 cents in March, followed by its annual May high of 
73.50 cents. From there it was a slow, bearish grind to today. 

   USDA issued export sales numbers Wednesday for the week ended Dec. 18. Those 
sales totaled 182,680 bales for the current marketing year and 880 for 2026-27 
for a total of 183,560. The previous release had sales of nearly 320,000 bales. 
Cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 6.36 million bales, down from 7.21 
million at this time last year and below the five-year average of 9.07 million. 
Sales remain the lowest since 2015-16. Sales have reached 57% of the USDA 
forecast versus a five-year average of 73% for this point in the marketing 
year. The largest buyer this week was Vietnam at 89,673 bales, followed by 
Pakistan at 29,514. Shipments totaled 146,915 bales, up from 134,371 the 
previous week. and the highest since Oct. 23.

   The CFTC will issue fresh Commitments of Traders information later 
Wednesday, and then again on Monday. At last count, the managed-money funds 
were net-short some 55,000 contracts. For context, their record bearish 
position was 81,000-plus contracts.

   The ICE cotton futures will be closed Thursday in observance of New Years,  
and then resume a normal session on Friday, the first of 2026.

   Crude oil prices were little changed Wednesday, but have essentially fallen 
some 15% over the course of 2025. Concerns of oversupply were marked by wars, 
higher tariffs, increased OPEC output, and sanctions on Russia, Iran and 
Venezuela. Brent Crude is down nealy 18%, and WTI, some 19% lower.

   For Wednesday, March 2026 went out at 64.27 cents, down 5 points; July was 
66.83 cents, minus 2 points; and December 2026, closed at 68.35 cents, up 3 
points. Wednesday's estimated volume was 32,515 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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