DTN Closing Cotton            08/25 13:50

   Cotton Pressured by Rain Forecasts, Lower Crude Oil

   The cotton market closed lower Tuesday, but in that process, it respectively 
came up from earlier triple-digit losses. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market closed lower Tuesday, but in that process, it respectively 
came up from earlier triple-digit losses. Potential weekend rains for west 
Texas, speculative "buy-the-breaks" traders and falling crude oil helped shape 
cotton's grip.

   The India Meteorological Department indicated that total rainfall during 
this season's monsoon is likely to be about 15% below the long-term average, 
making it the lowest since 2009. Moreover, if realized, that pace would nearly 
double the 8% deficit projected in the department's initial forecast. The 
agency is expected to issue its official forecast for September at the end of 
August. The monsoon could begin withdrawing from northwestern parts of the 
country a few days earlier than usual next month. The monsoon season typically 
begins in June and starts to retreat by Sept. 17 from northwestern parts of the 
country, ending across the country by mid-October. El Nino is strengthening and 
is likely to intensify further in September, suppressing rainfall.

   This Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will issue its weekly export sales 
data. Last week saw combined seasonal sales of 275,000 sales, with shipments of 
222,000 bales.

   Tuesday, Canada said it would slap retaliatory tariffs against the United 
States, applying to roughly $20 billion in goods. The new tariffs, set to take 
effect on Sept. 8, would apply to more than 700 U.S. goods and range from 15% 
to 50%. These duties would target steel, aluminum, dairy, seafood, apparel and 
more.

   Consumer confidence edged lower in August and flashed bearish ramifications 
down the road. The Consumer Confidence Index moved to 89.4, down 0.8 points and 
below industry expectations for 90.2.

   July new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 607,000, 
missing the 620,000-consensus estimate. It was also below the prior month's 
revised 678,000. Such sales are a key indicator for the U.S. economy, as well 
as future textile demand.

   For Tuesday, December closed at 88.34 cents, down 49 points; March 2027 
finished at 90.23 cents, off 46 points; and July 2027 settled at 90.56 cents, 
27 points lower. Tuesday's estimated volume was 39,940 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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