DTN Closing Cotton            09/15 13:36

   Cotton Closes Fractionally Lower Tuesday

   The cotton market took an early dive, but managed to stage a late-day 
comeback to settle fractionally down.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market took an early dive, but managed to stage a late-day 
comeback to settle fractionally down. There was technical short-covering 
against its momentary oversold condition, as well as general "energy anxiety" 
at work. Traders continue to monitor the Middle East, as well as wait for the 
interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. 

   Today the Federal Reserve meets to discuss domestic interest rates. Recent 
jobs data and inflation reports, plus high-flying crude oil, have some traders 
expecting a quarter-point hike in rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 
there is a 90% chance of a hike on Wednesday. 

   Crude oil is sharply higher today amid worries over escalating Iran-U.S. 
tensions. Recent strikes by the Houthis on a Saudi pipeline and attacks by Iran 
on ships in the Straight of Hormuz continue to ramp up crude prices. President 
Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. will continue its campaign against Iran and 
possibly take control of its oil. 

   On Thursday, USDA will release fresh exports-sales data. Last week's report 
showed combined seasonal sales of 76,318 bales. That amount was up from 27,525 
bales sold in the previous week. Currently, cumulative sales have reached 38% 
of USDA's current marketing year forecast versus a five-year average of 47% at 
this juncture of the season. 

   On Friday, the CFTC will update its closely watched Commitments of Traders 
Report. Last week's data showed managed money traders were net sellers of 7,807 
contracts, which reduced their net long carry to 100,170. Their record stands 
at 108,788 contracts. 

   For Tuesday, December closed at 84.48 cents, minus 7 points, March 2027 
finished at 86.99 cents, off 13 points, and July 2027 settled at 88.04 cents, 3 
points lower. Today's estimated volume was 62,704 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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