DTN Closing Cotton            04/09 13:35

   Cotton Climbs Higher Thursday

   ICE cotton was impressively higher Thursday, amid all of the volatile noise 
coming from outside markets, a benign weekly export sales, and neutral to 
slightly bearish crop report. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   ICE cotton was impressively higher Thursday, amid all of the volatile noise 
coming from outside markets, a benign weekly export sales, and neutral to 
slightly bearish crop report.

   Highlights from Thursday's weekly export sales include net sales of 319,580 
bales for the 2025-26 (current) marketing year and 14,051 for 2026-27 for a 
total of 333,631. Cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 91% of the USDA 
forecast versus a five-year average of 100% for this point in the marketing 
year.

   For Thursday's April WASDE, there are no changes to supply and demand 
categories in the U.S. balance sheet this month. The season-average farm price 
forecast is raised 1 cent to 61 cents/lb. The forecast for 2025-26 world cotton 
production is raised by almost 900,000 bales this month with 300,000-bale 
increases each for China, India and Pakistan, and small changes for other 
countries. The global consumption forecast raised about 560,000 bales, driven 
by higher mill use for China and India that is partially offset by reductions 
for Bangladesh and Vietnam. World imports are lowered by roughly 160,000 bales 
as reductions for Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam more than offset increases 
for China and India, with small changes for selected other countries. World 
exports are lowered by almost 190,000 bales led by a decline for India. Global 
production, mill use and ending stocks for 2024-25 are raised primarily because 
of revisions to India's balance sheet. The forecast for 2025-26 global ending 
stocks is raised by over 650,000 bales, largely because of increases for India 
and China. The projected global stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is 64.7%, up 
marginally from last month.  

   This Friday, traders will see a fresh readout of consumer prices via the 
April CPI. Despite the ceasefire, increased fuel prices will likely be slow to 
recede. Thus, inflation may see a bump in its numbers for the next few months. 
The report is out at 8:30 a.m. CDT.

   Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. Last 
week saw the managed-money funds had net bought some 21,000 positions.

   For Thursday, July closed at 75.32 cents, up 174 points; December 2026 
closed at 76.87 cents, plus 140 points; and March 2027 finished at 77.62 cents, 
132 points higher. Thursday's estimated volume was 143,871 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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