DTN Closing Cotton            04/08 13:35

   Cotton Market Kept Tabs on Crude Oil Wednesday

   The cotton market kept close tabs on crude oil today, just in case there was 
an unexpected knee-jerk reaction.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market kept close tabs on crude oil today, just in case there was 
an unexpected knee-jerk reaction. Supposedly, there is a two-week ceasefire in 
place, although there has allegedly been an incident where Iran shot drones 
into Kuwait today. Summarily, traders are waiting to see if the truce generally 
holds. With that, they will look at export sales, the April WASDE, fresh CPI 
data, and the CFTC update for price influences.

   Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will issue a new round of export sales. Last 
week saw combined seasonal sales over 488,000 bales. Shipments were 356,000, 
down 11% weekly.

   Also on Thursday, USDA will update its supply-demand tables via the April 
WASDE. For that report, the average trade expectation has U.S. production at 
13.83 million bales. If realized, that number would be down slightly from 13.92 
million in the March update. Exports are expected to come in around 11.99 
million bales versus 12.00 million in March. Ending stocks are expected at 4.36 
million versus 4.4 million in March. World production is expected at 120.66 
million bales (range 119.56-121.00) versus 120.99 million in March. Consumption 
is expected at 118.64 million compared to 118.58 million in March, and ending 
stocks are expected at 76.25 million versus 76.39 million in March.

   This Friday, traders will see a fresh readout of consumer prices via the 
April CPI. Despite the ceasefire, increased fuel prices will likely be slow to 
recede. Thus, inflation may see a bump in its numbers for the next few months. 
The report is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

   Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders data. Last 
week saw the managed-money funds had net bought some 21,000 positions, reducing 
their net-short carry to 12,266 contracts.

   For Wednesday, July closed at 73.58 cents, up 4 points; December 2026 closed 
at 75.47 cents, unchanged; and March 2027 finished at 76.30 cents, 3 points 
lower. Wednesday's estimated volume was 156,255 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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