DTN Closing Cotton            03/25 13:32

   Cotton Market Builds Toward 73-cent Area Ahead of Reports

   The cotton market is gradually easing toward retesting new crops 73-cent 
area and perhaps beyond. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is gradually easing toward retesting new crops 73-cent 
area and perhaps beyond. The market drew strength from the current adverse U.S. 
growing conditions, as well as outside markets. Traders are anticipating 
Thursday's export sales and Friday's CFTC update for new price influences.

   Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will update its weekly export sales data. 
Last week's business saw combined seasonal sales of 320,000 bales, with 
shipments at 273,000, off 26% weekly.

   USDA will issue its Planting Intentions report on March 31 at noon EDT. This 
will be the first official look at 2026 acres.

   This Friday, the CFTC will issue its Commitment of Traders Report. At last 
count, the CFTC reported that the managed-money funds were net short some 
40,000 positions, about one-half their record peak of 81,000-plus contracts. 
The report will be issued at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

   Growing conditions across the U.S. Cotton Belt remains inordinately dry. 
Something on the order of 89% of the U.S. Cotton Belt is suffering drought 
conditions. With that, the 6- to 10-day outlook shows slightly above chances 
for rain in west Texas, just normal opportunities for the Delta, and 
below-normal possibilities for the Southeast. Regarding temperatures, most of 
the nation will see above to much-above readings.

   Two major U.S. banks are now forecasting reduced U.S. yields due to reduced 
fertilizers availability and higher costs. Disruptions to nitrogen fertilizer 
supply through the Strait of Hormuz is the culprit. Fertilizer shortages may 
lead to growers cutting corners on marginal land. The Fertilizer Institute 
reported that U.S. farmers typically import up to 50% of urea fertilizer, but 
this year, the supplies are hovering around 25% below typical supply levels.

   For Wednesday, July closed at 70.33 cents, up 56 points; December 2026 
closed at 72.63 cents, plus 35 points; and March 2027 finished at 73.66 cents, 
31 points higher. Wednesday's estimated volume was 58,512 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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